Additionally, in the first and second quarters of 2024, India will have its central election, and the government is placing significant focus on infrastructure activities, further driving increased demand and consumption," he added. "As we enter the second half of the year, demand typically increases with the start of the festive and wedding season. "Refining activities are expected to be robust in the second half of the year, driven by strong domestic demand," said Sumit Ritolia, refinery economics analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights. Demand for jet fuel and naphtha rose 24.4% and 6.4%, respectively, over the same period. India's diesel demand rose 7.4% in the first half of 2023 from the same period in 2022, while gasoline demand rose 8.2%. Latest data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell showed that India's oil demand rose 5.7% year on year to 116.44 million mt, or 5.1 million b/d, in the first half of 2023. We have successfully insulated the common man from the surge in international prices, and our policies have ensured sustained availability of fuel at the most reasonable prices," Puri told a recent industry seminar.
"While we talk about growth, we have been mindful of inflation and prices. "The escalation of a domestic military conflict in the days ahead could increase demand for inventory, at least temporarily, in an otherwise complacent oil market," Paul Sheldon, the chief geopolitical advisor at S&P Global Commodity Insights, told its trade news outlet.Receive daily email alerts, subscriber notes & personalize your experience. They have since come off to pre-war levels over fears of a global downturn. Energy prices spiked to 14-year highs in the days following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Such an event could send prices up.Īs energy is a major input cost in the global economy, elevated oil prices could spell bad news for central banks' fight against inflation. "Historically, such geopolitical uncertainty in big oil producers has immediately added significant upside pressure to oil prices, even though the flow of oil supplies has not immediately changed," Leon wrote in the note.Įven if there isn't an immediate hit to oil production in Russia, the unrest could spill over into former Soviet countries that also produce oil, such as Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, added Leon. Examples include the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, and the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine in early 2022. Geopolitical events in big oil producers have increased oil prices by an average of 8% in the five days after the start of the triggering event, Leon added. "As such, we are likely to see a marginal uptick in oil prices in the coming days, if the situation does not deteriorate further," wrote Jorge Leon, a senior vice president at the firm. In a note on Sunday, research firm Rystad Energy wrote that it believes geopolitical risk from the internal instability in Russia has increased. As of Monday, oil prices have come off - but analysts say oil futures could continue posting gains due to the geopolitical risk in energy giant Russia. The Wagner Group's attempted mutiny against Russian President Vladimir Putin's regime was aborted - but the energy markets are already on alert, throwing a spanner into inflation that has just started showing signs of cooling.įollowing the aborted coup over the weekend, benchmark crude oil US West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil futures both jumped over 1% on Sunday. Account icon An icon in the shape of a person's head and shoulders.
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